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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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